Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Fishery-dependent indices of abundance are often used to inform stock assessments, but fishing effort is generally not randomly distributed. Fishers concentrate sampling in locations expected to be profitable, leading to a form of preferential sampling that can bias model-based indices of abundance. We show that when the strength of preferential sampling is constant over time, it biases only the magnitude of an index, which is absorbed by estimated catchability parameters in most stock assessments. A more interesting case arises when the strength of preferential sampling changes over time; in these cases the index trend can be biased in a way that conventional catchability estimation cannot correct. Using simulations structured on long running trawl survey data from the west coast of the USA for shortspine thornyhead (Sebastolobus alascanus), we evaluate two structurally different methods for correcting time-varying trend bias: a joint spatiotemporal model of the density and sampling processes, and a discrete-choice model of fisher location choice. Our simulations include two mechanisms generating preferential biases: effort tracking local density, and effort responding to a spatially structured, but unobserved anomaly that also inflates catch. We show that the ability of the estimation methods to correct bias depends on the mechanism responsible for concentrating effort; while the joint model is robust to both data-generating mechanisms, the discrete choice model is only able to correct biases when the mechanism is anomaly-driven. As a real-world case study, we apply these corrections to simulated preferentially sampled data and include indices in the shortspine thornyhead stock assessment model. We found that uncorrected time-varying preferential sampling positively biased estimates of a major recruitment event and, to a lesser extent, unfished recruitment. This bias propagated through to bias in overfishing limits that grew as the population was projected forward. While bias-corrected indices still produced some positive biases in overfishing limits, these were substantially reduced compared to the naive approach. As the mechanism of preferential sampling is rarely known in advance, our results suggest that the joint model represents a robust default for correcting fishery-dependent indices of abundance.

Okanagan sockeye salmon have shown a strong recovery over the past three decades, but the contribution of environmental conditions and management actions to this recovery has not been determined. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model linking spawner abundances to fry emergence observations to evaluate how flow and water temperature during adult upstream migration and incubation periods influence spawner-to-fry production. Production declined by 62% in years with earlier onset and longer duration of periods when warm river temperatures created barriers to adult migration, indicating that migration conditions can have carry-over effects on reproductive success even when spawners successfully reach the spawning grounds. Additionally, production was 46% lower when flows fell above or below the management target range designed to minimize scour and desiccation during egg incubation. In contrast, we found little support for effects of pre-spawning flows or incubation temperature on production. These findings provide quantitative evidence that current flow management is increasing freshwater spawner-to-fry production and has likely contributed to the Okanagan sockeye recovery. Effective flow management may therefore help offset climate-driven impacts that increasingly threaten this population.

Many Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) populations have declined over recent decades, and climate change is likely to exacerbate these declines through direct and indirect ecological effects. The response to the associated environmental changes is likely to vary among life stages, populations, and regions. Quantitative estimates of climate change driven impacts that account for this variability could fill a critical gap and provide forward-looking insights into how sockeye are expected to respond to future climate-driven change across their lifecycle. To address this need we developed a hierarchical population dynamics model parameterized with juvenile, adult return and spawner abundance data from 13 sockeye salmon populations from Washington State to northern British Columbia. We used a formal causal inference framework that paired salmon abundance data with a suite of environmental covariates hypothesized to represent ecological conditions across the lifecycle. We used the model to estimate population-specific responses to each environmental driver, then combined parameter estimates with projections from down-scaled climate change models to estimate productivity responses to anticipated environmental change. We found that historical sockeye productivity was strongly associated with environmental covariates, which explained more interannual variability in return abundance than spawner abundance in most populations. However, the life stages and specific environmental covariates with the largest impacts differed among populations and regions, often displaying a latitudinal gradient. Increases in coastal ocean temperatures and mixed layer depth generally had negative effects though they varied among regions. Increased freshwater summer rearing and return migration temperatures had weaker but consistently negative effects. Under future climate conditions, projected changes in these environmental covariates are expected to result in substantial declines in productivity across most populations. Sockeye salmon display varying degrees of sensitivity to climate change across life stages, populations, and regions. Effective future management will require explicitly accounting for these life stage and population-specific responses.

The management of Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) is currently defined by a long-standing life-history paradox: a stark divergence in maturation schedules between the Eastern and Western stocks. While the Mediterranean contingent matures at approximately 104 cm straight fork length (SFL; age 3-5), the western stock has long been characterized as a late-maturing, at [~]190 cm SFL (age 8+), and as late as age 15.8, based on size-at-catch data in the presumed exclusive spawning areas of the Gulf of Mexico. This discrepancy defies maturity states confirmed by endocrine hormones as well as established life-history principles that link metabolic energetics to reproductive biology. To resolve this critical issue in stock assessment, we present a sensitivity analysis based on the first histological evidence of spawning- capable individuals from 42 bluefin females (97-244 cm curved fork length or [~]95- 236 cm SFL) sampled in June 2025 within the Slope Sea, Northwest Atlantic. This historically overlooked, temperate spawning ground must be recognized and past estimates of stock productivity reevaluated. Our data provide a conservative estimate of length-at-50% maturity, L50 for females at 123.3 cm SFL, effectively reconciling the reproductive parameters of the two stocks based on histology. Our findings align established bluefin tuna metabolic and evolutionary symmetries in life history, irrespective of management boundaries. Incorporating this previously unrecognized spawning group (i.e., smaller, younger fish) calls for a substantial upward revision of Western spawning stock biomass (SSB). This biomass represents an intrinsic biological buffer that could contribute to the Atlantic bluefins adaptation and resilience. Appreciating demographic diversity is critical to accurately diagnosing stock vulnerability, ensuring that management frameworks protect long-term population stability in the face of climate-driven oceanographic shifts and ongoing exploitation pressure.

Diverse life history strategies allow species to spread risk across a mosaic of habitat conditions. In Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), particularly in the Central Valley of California, this is expressed through varied adult run timings and juvenile outmigration strategies. Anthropogenic impacts, particularly dams, disrupt these fundamental life stage transitions, often forcing managed populations to adapt to homogenized, less stochastic hydrologic regimes. This is exemplified in the Sacramento River, where the conservation of endangered Sacramento River winter run Chinook salmon requires balancing complex water operations with the ecological needs of a population confined to a short stretch of suitable habitat downstream of Shasta Reservoir. Using a 23 year dataset (2002 to 2024), we evaluated the combined effects of flow, temperature, and spawner abundance on juvenile production and life history expression in this habitat. We found that flow and spawner abundance best predicted juvenile abundance at Red Bluff Diversion Dam while temperature had considerably less support. The proportion of juveniles migrating as smolts exhibited significant density dependence that was negatively correlated to both female spawner abundance and peak flows. These results suggest focusing on temperature management alone may be insufficient. Effective management strategies should consider flow variability and habitat restoration to facilitate varying migration strategies and expand upstream rearing capacity. By addressing these physical and hydrologic constraints, managers can better support the full suite of life history strategies necessary for the resilience of winter run Chinook salmon.

As anthropogenic threats have intensified over the past 500 years, we find ourselves in the midst of a sixth mass extinction, with continued losses of biodiversity threatening ecosystem stability. This biodiversity loss has caused species extinctions across taxa, and placed several others at high risk of functional extinction. These disturbance-driven impacts represent one of the most acute biodiversity crises facing global marine systems. Species exhibiting slow life histories characteristically have low resilience to disturbance. Here, we assess the risk of functional extinction and identify policy pathways for population recovery of the slow-living, Critically Endangered elasmobranch, the spinetail devil ray (Mobula mobular). We develop a stochastic, state-structured Integral Projection Model (IPM) parameterised with demographic data collected from fishery landings data in India, the world's largest mobulid fishery, and supplemented with data on vital rates from published literature. Using the IPM, we estimate that the population is declining at approximately 12% annually, experiencing substantial limiting pressure from fisheries overexploitation and failing to approach its biological maximum growth potential. Our results indicate that populations of M. mobular will be at high risk of functional extinction if 'business as usual' harvest scenario persists for another decade. We further show that long-term population recovery is only possible if survival increases significantly across all size classes, especially among large reproductive females, alongside a concurrent increase in fecundity. We conclude that no single policy measure is sufficient to recover population of M. mobular along the southeastern coast of India. Instead, combined protection through maximum bycatch mitigation and protection of nursery areas in no-take zones will be required for population recovery. This research demonstrates that recovery of overexploited populations often requires integrated resource management across life stages, and that the Critically Endangered M. mobular warrants urgent conservation action to avoid functional extinction.

Pacific harbor seals (Phoca vitulina richardii) were surveyed throughout their range along Alaska coasts over a 28-year period. Twelve management stocks, delineated on the basis of evidence for demographic independence, were monitored for abundance and trends. We employed a two-stage Bayesian hierarchical analysis that integrated aerial survey counts with satellite-linked bio-logger haul-out timelines to account for the proportion of seals in the water and not visible to survey observers and cameras. Overall, harbor seals were abundant (201,122 seals in 2023) but, during the span of our study the population (stock) trends varied. The first half of our study was characterised primarily by growth, with a peak abundance of approximately 225,000 seals in 2015. Since then trends have been variable, with some stocks (e.g., Bristol Bay) showing continued growth while others (e.g. Prince William Sound, South Kodiak) declined. The recent regional declines coincided with observed climate anomalies (e.g., marine heatwaves) and the rapid retreat of tidewater glaciers. Our results provide a basis for managing this species in Alaska, which is protected under the Marine Mammal Protection Act; a vital nutritional and cultural resource for Alaska Native communities; and an important sentinel of change in the Northeast Pacific marine ecosystem.

Flood-control pumpstations compromise connectivity and survival for migratory fish globally, yet field evaluations of modern "fish-friendly" designs remain scarce. We evaluated out-migration survival and behavior of yearling coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) entrained through an open-Archimedes screw station (Hammersley) and a conventional radial station (Barrowtown) in the lower Fraser River floodplain, British Columbia. Using acoustic telemetry over two migration seasons (2024-2025), we tracked smolts across an 84-km corridor to New Westminster and modeled apparent survival using a Cormack-Jolly-Seber framework. Baseline natural mortality in downstream controls averaged 60% across years (cumulative survival: ~40%). Entrainment through the conventional radial station caused 87.5% mortality. The open-Archimedes station conferred an improvement over the conventional facility but still induced 11.5% mortality. Notably, pump-induced losses at the Archimedes pump were predominantly latent: while acute survival through immediate tailrace receivers was high (95-98%), survival deficits diverged downstream in the mainstem Fraser River. Entrainment also prolonged out-migration, causing up to a 10-day delay in 2024 driven by forebay holding and depressed downstream transit speeds. Our findings demonstrate that while open-Archimedes screws improve survival relative to legacy radial impellers, they still impose substantial latent mortality. In heavily altered basins where baseline smolt mortality is already high, additive losses from drainage infrastructure may exacerbate survival bottlenecks.

Given unprecedented environmental change, Pacific salmonids are becoming increasingly threatened; however, genomic technologies provide an opportunity to assess Pacific salmonid resilience to on-going environmental change. Also, given increasing conservation and animal welfare concerns, non-lethal tissue sampling is emerging for assessing the physiological status of wild species. Relatively few studies, however, have compared the transcriptomic response of fish sampled non-lethally versus lethally for fish health and stress quantification. Here, we conducted a comparative gene transcriptional profiling study using 28 qPCR assays on the OpenArray platform as an osmoregulatory stress transcriptional profiling chip. We sampled both non-lethal (gill biopsies, skin swabs, and water [eRNA]) and lethal (whole gill and liver) tissue samples from Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) smolts exposed for 0 h, 24 h, and 72 h to freshwater (0 PSU), brackish water (15 PSU) or seawater (30 PSU). We observed that most assays showed higher qPCR amplification success in both non-lethal gill biopsies and lethal gill tissues, compared to other tissues. We found more significant differences in transcript abundance in traditional lethal tissues compared to non-lethal tissues. With increasing duration of salinity exposure, gene transcript levels were typically upregulated in seawater samples compared to freshwater samples for both non-lethal and lethal tissues. The targeted genes for both non-lethal and lethal tissues were significantly and positively correlated across time points. Our findings support the use of non-lethal tissue sampling to improve Chinook salmon hatchery rearing, inform hatchery release timing, and facilitate future field application for the conservation of wild stocks.

Fishing pressure has substantially increased over time and elasmobranchs are among the most vulnerable marine taxa impacted. 'Small-scale' and 'large-scale' are terms frequently used to describe fisheries, yet definitions used across the globe are inconsistent. The global impact of small-scale fisheries on elasmobranch decline is increasingly evident. However, ambiguous vessel-capacity classifications undermine effective conservation management. Technological advancements have led to the emergence of medium-capacity vessels that sit between small and large-scale classifications, creating regulatory gaps that increase bycatch impacts on vulnerable elasmobranchs. Beyond vessel size, the gear specificities and practices also affect interaction with species caught incidentally, and can alter bycatch risk for vulnerable elasmobranchs. Manta and devil rays (collectively, mobulids) represent a pelagic ray group that includes species listed as Critically Endangered with high risk of extinction, largely due to bycatch threats. To prioritise fisheries management for conservation, we assess the contribution of fishing gear specifications and practices to mobulid bycatch as a case study in their largest fishery globally. We use a Huber-robust extension to a Hurdle negative binomial model to assess the impact of fishery characteristics and operational specificities on mobulid bycatch risk. We find that within the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations' broad international fleet classification of small-scale vessels based on overall length ([≤]24 m), the 'medium-capacity vessels' in India are twice as likely to catch mobulids than small-scale vessels. Further, increased fishing intensity, measured in five-day increments, doubles mobulid bycatch risk. Our results indicate the emergence of a distinct medium-capacity fishery class in rapidly developing blue-economy nations, shaped by rising technological capacity and exemptions from large-scale management measures. We propose a comprehensive re-conceptualisation of small-scale fisheries to ensure that advanced medium-capacity vessels are subject to management measures commensurate with their bycatch impact. Our recommended re-conceptualisation is complementary to FAO's SSF characterisation matrix and would promote fishery-level sustainability and enable bycatch risk mitigation for elasmobranchs, including manta and devil rays. Further, for congruence between elasmobranch demography and regulations, we recommend that fisheries management measures distinguish vessel capacities for elasmobranch bycatch risk and apply biologically relevant regulations to the associated fisheries scale.

Human-wildlife conflicts over shared resources are often interpreted as direct competition, whereby resources consumed by wildlife are unavailable to people. Yet, individuals of wild populations can differ in their propensity to exploit resources, and the demographic, ecological, and economic consequences of such behavioural heterogeneity remain poorly understood. We developed an integrated demographic-bioeconomic model of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), grey seals (Halichoerus grypus), and a coastal gillnet fishery. Stage-structured population models incorporated density dependence, predator-prey interactions, adaptive harvesting, and transitions of adult seals into a bold, depredating state. We compared four scenarios of increasing complexity over 50 years across 100 coupled demographic realisations and examined sensitivity to the energetic contribution of depredated catch, harvest levels, and social amplification of depredation behaviour. Cod and seals persisted in all demographic realisations, supporting our ecological-persistence hypothesis. Contrary to our predictions, however, adding bold seals neither reduced long-term fishery performance nor destabilised the system. Median net present value was approximately three-fold greater in the full system than without depredation, and was greater in 76% of paired realisations. The full system was also the most temporally stable: median cod variability declined by 74% relative to the otherwise equivalent fishery without depredation, while seal variability declined by 45%. Behavioural depredation therefore altered predator population structure and imposed direct catch losses, but these effects were counterbalanced by indirect demographic feedbacks. Synthesis and applications. Depredating predators should not necessarily be viewed simply as competitors that reduce contested resources. Behavioural heterogeneity can introduce compensatory pathways that alter population stability and long-term economic outcomes. Management should therefore consider not only predator abundance and immediate catch losses, but also how harvest creates opportunities for behavioural change and how those changes propagate through coupled ecological-economic systems.

Space-for-time Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) models have been developed to estimate survival of migrating animals that are imperfectly detected at spatially discrete sampling stations. However, space-for-time CJS models typically ignore survival over time and age-specific probability of movement, missing the diversity of life history strategies. To address these limitations, we extended space-for-time Cormack-Jolly-Seber models to explicitly incorporate time, age, and individual-level covariates to account for diverse life history strategies. We incorporate a sub-model that includes uncertainty in individuals age using a finite-mixture model. The detection and transition probabilities were parameterized using generalized linear models, facilitating flexible model specification and inclusion of spatiotemporal and individual covariates. We apply the model to detections of juvenile steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) from two populations in the Snake River Basin in Idaho, USA, to estimate trends in survival with respect to population, age, time, and the length of individuals. Additionally, we generalized the model so that it can be applied to other systems and populations with different life history strategies and monitoring infrastructure.

A high proportion of the world's population relies on marine fisheries as a source of food and employment, highlighting the need for sustainable exploitation strategies. However, fisheries management commonly relies on single-species models that overlook ecological interactions and economic trade-offs, which may lead to stocks being exploited above sustainable levels. To address this gap, we developed a novel size-structured, multispecies bioeconomic module integrated within the spatially explicit, individual-based OSMOSE ecosystem model. OSMOSE represents exploited fish communities in which individuals interact through opportunistic, size-dependent predator-prey interactions which are explicitly incorporated into the bioeconomic framework. The bioeconomic model accounts for multiple species and size classes, allowing for size-dependent market prices. Fishing costs and profits are represented using an extension of the Gordon-Schaefer model to multiple interacting species, while consumer demand is modelled using a nested Dixit-Stiglitz utility function with three levels of constant elasticity of substitution for fish commodity, species and size classes. We present a method for estimating parameters for the bioeconomic module when empirical estimates are unavailable, using the North Sea OSMOSE configuration, which comprises 15 species. Our method successfully estimated the six bioeconomic parameters required to operationalise the model. Results indicate that differences in cost parameters were primarily associated with variability in species biomass rather than fishing gear, while fish prices were more strongly influenced by consumer's demand than by availability. This framework provides a basis for assessing the economic consequences of alternative climate change scenarios and supporting sustainable fisheries management.

Once central challenge in adopting ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) is understanding and predicting the interconnected processes, feedbacks, and temporal dependencies that characterize ecosystem dynamics. Structural equation models and structural causal models (SEM and SCM) quantify interconnected relationships and evaluate causality from observational data but cannot readily accommodate the incomplete and irregularly sampled data typical of complex systems. Dynamic structural equation models (DSEM) estimate SEMs but accommodate lagged effects, missing data, and non-linear and non-stationary effects. However, there is little guidance regarding how DSEM can be used to support EBFM, particularly within governance and decision-making contexts. Here, we present three case studies that highlight distinct inferential goals for understanding ecosystem processes in the context of EBFM. First, we quantify ecosystem-level indicators to support monitoring of climate-driven ecosystem changes. Second, we examine whether hypothesized direct and indirect ecosystem linkages improve predictions of recruitment. Finally, we compare support for hypotheses of causal drivers of fish productivity. To provide practical advice, we synthesize lessons learned into a workflow to for others navigating DSEM. We suggest that the first step is identifying the inferential objective, which establishes the foundation for the remainder of the workflow, guiding the development of graphical models, model specification, and the selection of statistical and scientific validation steps (e.g., testing conditional independencies) needed to evaluate hypothesized causal relationships. By integrating observational data, expert knowledge, and mechanistic hypotheses within a unified framework, DSEM is a powerful tool for advancing EBFM, and more broadly, understanding the processes that govern complex ecosystems.

Extreme climate events are rapidly reshaping ecosystems and contributing to biodiversity loss, yet their long-term impacts remain poorly understood, particularly in marine systems. In 2011, an unprecedented marine heatwave (MHW) on the west coast of Australia drove declines in habitat-forming plants and across taxa spanning multiple trophic levels. Shark Bay, home to an iconic Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops aduncus) population, endured temperatures 3-5{degrees}C above long-term means, triggering catastrophic seagrass loss. Using 20 years (2003-2023) of dolphin photo-identification data, we fitted a Bayesian Hidden Markov Model to estimate annual, age-class specific survival probabilities, abundance and recruitment rate, and their association with MHW-mediated seagrass loss in the western (WSB) and eastern (ESB) gulfs of Shark Bay. Adult survival declined markedly, from 0.99 (0.98-1.00) pre-MHW to 0.85 (0.79-0.90) post-MHW in WSB, and from 0.96 (0.92-0.98) to 0.89 (0.85-0.95) in ESB, remaining below pre-MHW levels for several years, while juvenile and calf survival declined in both gulfs to a lesser extent. Recruitment declined in both gulfs and, although recovery was evident in WSB from 2019 onward, continued to decline in ESB until the end of the study. These sustained demographic declines drove substantial reductions in population growth and abundance in both WSB (39%) and ESB (36%). Demographic changes were associated with seagrass loss, here a proxy for habitat and prey availability, with clearest support for adult survival in WSB and a two-year-lagged recruitment response in ESB. This pathway is likely to operate across diverse ecosystems as climate change drives increasing loss of habitat-forming species. The severity and duration of these demographic impacts illustrate that habitat change can cascade through trophic systems to overwhelm demographic resilience in upper-trophic species. This has negative implications for even long-lived, K-selected species, whose slow demographic recovery may not keep pace with the accelerating frequency and intensity of climate disturbance.

Chinstrap penguins (Pygoscelis antarcticus) in the Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Arc regions (CCAMLR subareas 48.1 and 48.2) have experienced substantial declines, yet uncertainty remains about regional variation and conservation priorities. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to 1,072 nest counts from 194 colonies (1970 to 2024) to quantify population trends, estimate probabilities of exceeding IUCN Red List thresholds, and assess compensation potential across four locations. The regional population declined by 41.9% over three generations, with 91.4% probability of exceeding the 30% Vulnerable threshold but only 9.2% probability of exceeding the 50% Endangered threshold. Declines were spatially heterogeneous: South Shetland Islands (40.2% of regional population) declined by 74.7% with near-certainty of exceeding both thresholds, while South Orkney Islands showed stability with high uncertainty (median -5%, 95% CI: -31.5% to +36.8%). The probability of increasing colonies compensating for regional losses was only 7%. These results support a three-zone conservation strategy for CCAMLR's proposed Marine Protected Area: urgent protection for the South Shetland Islands, enhanced monitoring for South Orkney and Elephant Islands, and adaptive management for the Antarctic Peninsula. Our uncertainty-quantified framework provides evidence-based guidance for balancing krill fishery access with predator protection in a rapidly changing Southern Ocean.

Ecological forecasts often rely on established relationships between the ecological process of interest and predictor variables that are more easily measured. Proliferations of benthic (i.e., bottom-dwelling) cyanobacteria have been increasingly observed in rivers globally and are an emerging ecological forecasting issue as they pose a public health threat due to the production of potent neurotoxins known as anatoxins. Controls on these benthic cyanobacteria are poorly understood, thus predicting or forecasting their extent and anatoxin production is a significant challenge. Here, we measured benthic cyanobacterial cover and anatoxin concentrations for two common taxa associated with anatoxins (Microcoleus and Anabaena) at biweekly to weekly intervals during June to September in 2022 and 2023 in three northern Californian rivers. We then built predictive models to test how incorporation of a biotic predictor (river reach-scale gross primary productivity [GPP]) affected predictive accuracy in addition to widely measured abiotic predictors (i.e., nutrients, discharge, and temperature). Temporal patterns in taxon-specific benthic cyanobacterial cover and anatoxin concentrations were highly variable among rivers and between taxa. While Microcoleus cover peaked in rivers during periods of relatively low GPP, there were no clear relationships between GPP and Anabaena cover nor anatoxin concentrations of either taxon among rivers. Among multiple reaches sampled weekly in the South Fork Eel River, magnitudes of taxon-specific benthic cyanobacterial cover and anatoxin concentrations differed, but the timing of peak taxon-specific cover and anatoxin concentrations were generally consistent. Furthermore, Anabaena displayed a hysteresis relationship where increases in cover were followed by increases in anatoxin concentrations while Microcoleus lacked such relationship. While incorporating GPP as a covariate improved our predictions of Anabaena cover, we had more success predicting Microcoleus cover than Anabaena cover due to its strong negative relationship with discharge. In contrast, our models predicting Anabaena anatoxin concentrations outperformed those predicting Microcoleus anatoxin concentrations due to the hysteresis relationship between Anabaena cover and anatoxins. Overall, our predictive modeling results highlight the application of ecological forecasting for benthic cyanobacterial cover and anatoxin concentrations in rivers and demonstrate the importance of incorporating taxon-specific predictors into future forecasts of benthic cyanobacteria.

In the springs of 2012-2013, Russian Federation scientists conducted aerial surveys of ice-associated seals (including bearded, ribbon, ringed, and spotted seals) in the Sea of Okhotsk and in Russian waters of the western Bering Sea. These instrument-based surveys used a combination of thermal imaging and digital photography to detect and photograph seals basking on sea ice. Initial estimates of seal distribution and abundance from these surveys have been published in Russian journals, but did not make adjustments for observation error. In this paper, we reanalyze these data with the goal of producing spatially explicit estimates of seal abundance that properly account for incomplete detection and species classification errors. Our analysis used estimated relationships between seal abundance and habitat variables to predict abundance in unsurveyed locations, and auxiliary data on detectability to model the observation process. Under this framework, we estimated that in 2012 there were approximately 185,330 bearded seals, 68,564 ribbon seals, 272,609 ringed seals, and 226,003 spotted seals in the western Bering Sea; in 2013, these numbers were 144,105, 39,435, 203,130, and 90,501, respectively. In the Sea of Okhotsk, estimated abundance was 218,740 bearded seals, 221,228 ribbon seals, 179,893 ringed seals, and 169,870 spotted seals (2013 only). These are the first credible estimates of ice-associated seals in the Okhotsk and western Bering Seas, and should be useful for population management and for measuring how density and distribution change as a function of decreasing Arctic sea ice. Declines in seal estimates in the western Bering Sea from 2012 to 2013 mirror patterns observed in the eastern Bering Sea during concurrent U.S. surveys and could represent a decrease in abundance or a substantial decrease in pupping and molting activity.

The decline in fishery yields in Japan's enclosed coastal seas has been accompanied by a reduction in phytoplankton biomass, suggesting a widespread decrease in ecosystem productivity. Oligotrophication in Mikawa Bay has caused substantial declines in phytoplankton biomass and Manila clam (Ruditapes philippinarum) production. To assess whether external nutrient enhancement could stimulate phytoplankton growth, a controlled demonstration experiment using treated effluent from two sewage treatment plants (WWTPs) was conducted (spanning fiscal years 2022 to 2024) based on analysis using a three-dimensional non-hydrostatic model. Although effluent DIP and nitrogen concentrations were increased, model results showed that WWTP-derived nutrients represent only a minor portion of the total nutrient budget. Field observations revealed limited increases in surface water phosphorus, strong seasonal variability, and only temporary rises in chlorophyll-a and clam harvests. Monthly TP data demonstrated that seasonal DIP pulses, especially spring phosphorus bursts, dominate nutrient dynamics and overshadow external loading effects. Laboratory experiments further showed that phosphate is efficiently fixed by Fe(III) under oxidizing conditions and rapidly released during reductive dissolution of [FeOOH-HPO4]2- complexes, confirming iron as the principal regulator of internal P cycling. Because current numerical models omit iron-driven internal cycling, they cannot accurately predict bioavailable P or ecosystem responses. Overall, the study indicates that localized nutrient enhancement is insufficient to counter long-term oligotrophication, and effective management must integrate nitrogen limitation, internal Fe and P cycling, oceanic exchange, and seasonal variability in Ise and Mikawa Bays.

1. Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) are an anadromous fish with a broad distribution from eastern North America to western Europe, with ecological, economic, and cultural significance. Despite their expansive range, wild populations across the North Atlantic have experienced decline. Survival to reproductive age is a management concern, with a focus on identifying factors affecting the juvenile freshwater life stage. Specifically, research is needed to identify potential bottlenecks limiting freshwater productivity. 2. We addressed this research gap with a case study on the Exploits River, Newfoundland - a watershed that receives one of the largest anadromous Atlantic salmon returns in North America. We aimed to identify biotic, chemical, and physical predictors of food resources for juvenile salmon (i.e., invertebrates) and food resources for invertebrates (i.e., periphyton). To test our hypotheses, we collected data on a suite of biotic (e.g., invertebrates and periphyton), chemical (e.g., total dissolved N), and physical (e.g., wetted width) variables at 42 sites within and around this watershed. 3. We observed evidence for relationships between invertebrate biomass and biotic and temporal variables. Specifically, invertebrate biomass was higher at sites with high periphyton biomass that were sampled later in the season. In addition, we observed that periphyton biomass was related to biotic, chemical, and physical variables. Here, we present evidence for bottom-up control, with increased periphyton biomass supporting increased invertebrate biomass. 4. We expect knock-on effects where increased invertebrate biomass results in increased juvenile Atlantic salmon biomass. Our large sample size revealed some predictors of invertebrate biomass and periphyton biomass. However, we found no evidence of correlation between invertebrate biomass and chemical or physical variables. The low productivity of our maritime boreal forest system could be an outlier in expected biotic, chemical, and physical relationships in streams. 5. Our findings provide an important step forward in furthering boreal stream ecology, producing novel invertebrate and periphyton knowledge for watershed managers.